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國際：中國養(yǎng)豬業(yè)繼續(xù)減欄 農(nóng)業(yè)部2016年新技術(shù)養(yǎng)豬

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國際：中國養(yǎng)豬業(yè)繼續(xù)減欄 農(nóng)業(yè)部2016年新技術(shù)養(yǎng)豬


The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s Swine March Inventory Report indicates a decline of 700,000 sows in the last month. In the first three months of 2015, Chinese Government data indicates 2.5 million sows have been eliminated. In the last 12 months, 7.5 million sows have been liquidated, bringing the Chinese Sow Inventory to 40.425 million sows. It’s a continuing unprecedented decline in China’s production capacity, and with 700,000 more gone last month a scenario that is far from over.
中國農(nóng)業(yè)部三月份的生豬存欄報(bào)告表明，上個(gè)月份母豬減少700,000頭 。2015年前三個(gè)月，中國政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)表明，已經(jīng)淘汰250萬母豬 。在過去12個(gè)月中，中國母豬已經(jīng)淘汰了750萬頭母豬，存欄下降為4042.5萬頭 。中國的產(chǎn)能出現(xiàn)了空前的持續(xù)衰退，從上個(gè)月減少的70萬頭可以看到這一過程還未結(jié)束 。
The Hog Market Inventory on March 01, 2015 was 389.93 million, down 40 million from the same time a year ago. If it takes 25 weeks for a hog to go from birth to market that is an average of 1.6 million fewer hogs per week coming to slaughter over the next 6 months. That’s a heck of a lot less pork available and with the sow herd liquidation ongoing there will be even fewer hogs to go to market in 2016.
2015年3月1日商品豬存欄是38,993萬頭，比去年同期減少了4000萬頭 。豬從出生到出欄需要25周時(shí)間，在接下來6個(gè)月時(shí)間內(nèi)，每周出欄頭數(shù)將減少160萬頭左右 。豬肉數(shù)量大量減少 。隨著母豬群的持續(xù)淘汰，2016年的出欄數(shù)甚至可能更低 。
China’s hog prices are about 95? USD a pound liveweight that is currently up about 5? a pound this past month. The challenge for Chinese producers is Corn at $10 USD a bushel, Soybean meal $550 USD a ton, lots of diseases, and low productivity. Truth is 95? US liveweight a pound or over $200 per market hog is near breakeven or for many, losses.
中國的生豬價(jià)格約為95美分/磅活重，上個(gè)月上漲了約5美分/磅 。中國生產(chǎn)者面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是玉米價(jià)格達(dá)10美元/蒲式耳，豆粕價(jià)格為550美元/噸以及大量的疾病和低下的生產(chǎn)效率 。事實(shí)是95美分/磅活重的價(jià)格，即每頭生豬200美元，這差不多是很多人的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)，仍然虧損 。
We have been writing for several months that China will at some point be down 2 million hogs per week (give or take total US slaughter per week). We are getting closer. We believe that the equivalent of 100,000 hogs a week exported from the US to China is a market mover. Same scenario for EU countries. It will happen, capitalism is alive and well; pork will move at unprecedented levels to China. It’s already started and like a snowball going down a hill will just have to continue to get bigger.
我們這幾個(gè)月一直在說，中國將在某一時(shí)刻每周減少200萬頭生豬(美國每周的總屠宰量) 。我們?cè)絹碓浇咏?。我們相信，從美國到中國每周相當(dāng)于100,000頭豬的出口量是市場推手 。歐盟國家是相同的情況 。這很正常，資本主義會(huì)很好地起作用 。運(yùn)往中國的豬肉將會(huì)達(dá)到前所未有的水平 。這已經(jīng)開始，像雪球下坡一樣將只會(huì)不斷增大 。
【國際：中國養(yǎng)豬業(yè)繼續(xù)減欄 農(nóng)業(yè)部2016年新技術(shù)養(yǎng)豬】Cash Market
現(xiàn)貨市場
The US hog price continues its relentless increase. On Friday, Iowa – Minnesota averaged 74.94? lean a pound up 6? on the week. Since the release of the March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report on March 27 lean hog months have gained 6 cents a pound.
美國生豬價(jià)格繼續(xù)不斷上漲 。周五，艾奧瓦州-明尼蘇達(dá)州的平均價(jià)格為74.94美元/瘦肉豬，本周上漲6美分 。美國農(nóng)業(yè)部3月27日發(fā)布了3月1日生豬報(bào)告以來，瘦肉豬每磅上漲了6美分 。
Observations
觀察
·US National Daily Base Lean Hog weights a year ago were 219.84 pounds. This past week lean hog weights were 6 pounds lighter at 213.9. 6 pounds is about 8 pounds liveweight. If we use 2 pounds gain per day, that’s 4 days production, or about 1 million hogs pulled ahead this year compared to last year. The US has marketed about 2 million more hogs this year compared to last or a 5.6% increase. Take one million out due to pull ahead, it moves year over year marketings to 2.8%. The USDA December 1 Hog Inventory Report indicated a 2% increase year over year in market inventory. They are the Pigs we marketed year to date.

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