We sometimes wonder how we end up thinking as we do. It is as if we are in a different universe compared to other commentators. Last week we read after we wrote our commentary the expectations of others. Last week we estimated based on the USDA’s March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report, that lean hogs would be 89-98 lean in May-August of 2015. Below are other estimates.
正如我們在做的，我們有時候會想我們要如何結束思考 。我們似乎和其它評論家生活在不同的世界 。上周寫完評論后，我們讀了其他人的預測 。上周，我們根據美國農業(yè)部3月1日的生豬報告預測2015年5月—8月的瘦肉豬價格應該在89~98美分之間 。下面是其他人的預測 。
Obviously, our expectation is between $35-50 per head higher than others (economists) are. We are not exactly following the crowd. Why do we think so different?
很明顯，我們每頭35~50美元的預測要高于其它(經濟學家)的觀點 。我們確實沒有跟隨主流 。為什么我們會有不同的想法?
The US March 1 Market hog Inventory this year was 124,000 head less than March 1 2014: In 2013 Lean Hogs averaged 95? lean May-August. Same number of Hogs in inventory 2015.
今年美國3月1日的生豬存欄是124,000頭，比2014年3月1日的數量更低 。2013年5月~8月的瘦肉豬平均價格為95美元 。2015年的生豬存欄量不變 。
US Pork Cut-outs were 64.44 last Thursday. US Beef Cut-outs 256.40 last Thursday. Beef Cut-outs currently 4 times Pork Cut-outs. We absolutely believe this spread will narrow as consumers up consumption of Pork due to its economic advantage. Demand increases prices. We see little reason for Beef prices to decline with US Beef Production down 5% year over year and inventory levels at a record low. IF Pork Cut-outs reach $1.00 Beef will still be 2.5 time more expensive.
上周四，美國豬肉切塊的價格為64.44美分/lb 。上周四，美國牛肉切塊的價格為256.40美分/lb 。牛肉切塊價格目前是豬肉切塊的4倍 。由于價格優(yōu)勢，我們絕對相信隨著消費者增加豬肉的消費，這一差價將會縮小 。需求推高價格 。由于美國牛肉產量下降5%且存欄量處于歷史低位，我們認為牛肉價格下跌可能不大 。如果豬肉切塊的價格達到1美元，牛肉的價格仍將高出2.5倍 。
The US population is approximately 4 million more people more than in 2013. This increases demand. More people at flat per capita consumption in itself increases demand. 4 million more people will need a minimum extra one million market hogs to meet their average pork demand requirements.
美國人口比2013 年增加約400萬 。這增加了需求 。在人均消費量保存不變的情況下，人口的增長將會增加需求 。增加的4百萬人口將需求增加至少1百萬頭豬來滿足平均的豬肉需求 。
We also see market weights declining. A year ago, the National Lean Hog Weight this past week was 214.45 lbs., last week this year hog weights are 214.40. Lower weights will cut pork supply and help strengthen lean hog prices.
我們還看到上市體重下降 。去年的上一周，全國瘦肉豬體重為214.45 lb 。今年的上一周生豬體重為214.40 lb 。體重下降將減少豬肉供應并有助于提振瘦肉豬價格 。
Sow herd expansion is ongoing but it will not effect to any degree the number of hogs going to market in the next five months as they were all born and in place March 1. What we have to sell to market until the end of August are already in pipeline. There are no more pigs than March 1, 2013.
母豬群的擴張正在進行，但這不會影響到未來5個月的生豬出欄數量 。這些情況發(fā)生在3月1日，而現(xiàn)在的豬都是過去出生的 。要到8月底，我們才開始出售這些商品豬 。豬的數量并沒有比2013年3月1日更多 。
We strongly expect greater exports to China to kick in. Huge herd liquidation of 7 million sows, China Hog prices double current US hog prices will push pork to China. When it happens, major market mover.
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