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荷蘭合作銀行：中國將在下半年至2016年增加豬肉進口

生活百科合作

Last week Rabobank, the world’s largest Ag-Bank released their 3rd quarter perspective on Global Pork Markets.
上周全球最大的農業銀行荷蘭合作銀行發布了第三季度全球豬肉市場報告 。
“The enormous cull” of China’s hog herd over the last 18 months is pressuring production, causing China to expand imports into 2016.
中國豬群在過去18個月的“大量淘汰”壓縮了產量，導致中國在2016年要增加進口量 。
Rabobank animal protein analyst Albert Vernooji says, “The main questions are when Chinese Import growth will start, how much volume growth there will be and what the support for pork prices will be across the globe.”
荷蘭合作銀行動物蛋白分析師Albert Vernooji說：“主要的問題是中國將在何時開始出現進口增長，多大的增長會對全球的豬肉價格起到支撐作用 。”
Rabobank also says:
荷蘭合作銀行同時認為：
China’s imports will expand second half of 2015 and into 2016.
中國將在下半年至2016年增加進口 。
In the US, the question is if Q2’s margin recovery will continue, as the strong supply rebound will likely be partially absorbed by expected growth in exports to China.
由于強大的供應反彈將有可能被對中國出口的預期增長部分吸收，美國的問題是第2季度的利潤是否會繼續得到改善 。
The EU market has ample opportunities for price and margin improvement.
歐盟市場有機會得到價格和利潤的改善 。
Continuing disease outbreaks in Mexico and South Korea support high prices and strong import demands.
墨西哥和韓國的持續疫情推動了高價格和強勁的進口需求 。
China
中國
We agree with Rabobank about China’s import potential here and now.
我們同意荷蘭合作銀行對目前中國進口潛力的認可 。【荷蘭合作銀行：中國將在下半年至2016年增加豬肉進口】
Three Key Numbers:
三個關鍵數字：
China market hog inventory is 57 million lower than 2 years ago – down 2 million head a week.
中國商品豬存欄比2年前減少5700萬頭，每周減少200 萬頭 。
China sow inventory is down 10.3 million from two years ago.
中國母豬存欄比2年前下降了1030萬頭 。
China market hog price is now $1.25 US live weight a pound. Mid-April it was 85? a pound US. That is a price increase of $100 per head.
中國現在的生豬價格為1.25美元/磅活重 。4月中旬為85美分/磅 。每頭豬的價格上漲了100美元 。
Less hogs, less sows, and the most important part, hog prices that have rocketed higher reflecting decreased supply and solid demand. The spread between China and the US live weight price is about 70? or $175 per head!!! We are betting that this very moment this price spread is leading to loading of containers of pork to be shipped now. Capitalism will push pork to China.
生豬減少、母豬減少，最重要的是，生豬價格的飛漲反映了供應量的下降和強勁的需求 。中國與美國活豬價格的差價約為70美分，即每頭175美元!我們打賭，此時此刻的這個差價正在帶來豬肉集裝箱的裝運 。資本主義將把豬肉推向中國 。
China owned Smithfield Foods will lead the way. If they could move 100,000 carcass equivalent a week and gain $100 per head margin that is $10 million a week. Bet that China will keep American supply open!
中國老板的史密斯菲爾德食品會帶路 。如果他們每周運送相當于10萬頭胴體的產品，每頭獲利100美元，一周就是1000萬美元 。中國肯定會讓美國保持供應開放!
Country of Origin Labelling
原產國標簽制度
Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) last Thursday offered an amendment to a highway-funding bill to repeal country of origin labelling requirements for beef, pork, and poultry and stave off trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico. A move hailed by NPPC – National Pork Producers Council.

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